The Skinny May 31, 2011
The 889 purchase agreements signed in the Twin Cities for the week ending May 21 were 40.2% higher than the same week in 2010. That's a big number, and it's certainly good news, but let's break it down.
Three short weeks ago, current sales activity was 37.4% below last year's levels. The truth is current sales levels have been slowly but steadily increasing all year. The sudden change from negative to positive year-over-year pending sales comparisons reflect sharply declining 2010 post-tax credit activity rather than skyrocketing 2011 activity. Even so, double-digit year-over-year gains are a welcome sight.
The change in seller activity was less dramatic. New listings were up 7.9%. This is the 3rd consecutive week of year-over-year gains in listings, yet the 3 month average shows a 19.7% decline compared to last year. There are 10% less actie listings for sale than last year at this time.

The Skinny May 20, 2011

Last week marked the official end of year-over-year comparison to the 2010 tax credit period, but it's evident (and not uncommon) that we'll have at least one transitional week to count up the final sales of the tax credit. This week's numbers are still about as negative as the Minnesota Twins have been this May, but we anticipate a more positive showing in the weeks to come.

For the week ending May 7, Pending Sales were down 27.7 percent to 819 purchase agreements signed, marking the 22nd consecutive week of year-over-year declines in Pending Sales.

There are 23,475 homes to choose from in the 13-county metro area – 210 more than last week but 10.3 percent fewer than last year at this time.

The Skinny May 2, 2011
New listings in the TC were down 30.7% from the same week last year. This represents 16 consecutive weeks of double digit year over year declines for new listings.
Pending sales were down 25.2%, representing 10 consecutive weeks of double digit declines.
As last year's tax credit induced spike becomes a memory, the story should change significantly. In the coming weeks, the numbers will show gains over the post tax credit period instead of the declines.

The Skinny April 11, 2011
Daylight hours may be increasing but contrary to seasonal norms, the number of homes for sale continues to remain about the same. There are now 22,449 active listings in the Twin Cities, 14.4 percent fewer than last year. Nine consecutive weeks of year-over-year inventory decline bring a number of implications—mostly good, some not so good.

On the good side, sellers have fewer properties to compete with. This should quicken market times and increase seller leverage at the closing table. Improving demand with unchanging supply has the tendency to lift prices. On the not-so-good side, buyers have fewer options than in recent years. In light of skyrocketing affordability, historically low interest rates, foreclosure bargains, favorable negotiations and low prices, buyers are still proving to be either very patient, highly cost-conscious or both. Even so, purchase demand has more or less kept pace with non-incentivized 2009 levels.

New Listings decreased for the 14th consecutive week, dropping 19.2 percent to 1,738 properties. Pending Sales hit their highest weekly total this year but still trail last year's pace, down 25.1 percent year-over-year to 840 purchase agreements signed.

MN home sales improve amid price drops

Read more: MN home sales improve amid price drops | Minneapolis / St. Paul Business Journal

January home market: Frigid month for prices, slight thaw in sales

Soaring foreclosures helped boost home sales and clobber prices.

January 24, 2011
The Skinny
Buyers were more eager to get back in the game than sellers for the week ending January 15. There were 1286 new properties added to the TC residential real estate market, down 22.9% compared to the same week last year. This marks the third consecutive week of year-over-year declines in seller activity after three consecutive weeks of year-over-year gains.

Active Listings for Sale were up 6.3% That's the fourth consecutive week of decreasing inventory gains compared to last year.

January 13, 2011
SIGNS OF PRICE RECOVERY IN 2010 AMIDST FRAGILE DEMAND
Although 2010 included sales gains driven by a springtime tax credit, it also endured an extended decline after it expired. The year is summed up by a boom-and-bust tax credit. 55-year -low mortgage rates, record high affordability levels and a sluggish economic recovery.

November 22, 2010
The Skinny
Despite the icy roads, year-over-year purchase demand gives the appearance of gaining some traction. For the week ending November 13, there were 577 Pending Sales in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, a small 4.3 percent decline from year-ago levels.

The year 2010 is summed up by a boom-and-bust tax credit, 55-year-low mortgage rates, record high affordability levels and a sluggish economic recovery.

Don’t put too much stock in this closing gap of home buyer activity, as compared to 2009. This year’s home sales have remained relatively flat at winter levels since the tax credit expired last spring. Buyer activity declined at this time in 2009 and that's driving down the year-over-year change. We're just now entering the part of the calendar where this sales trend is to be expected.

After two weeks of flirting with black ink, seller activity is back in the red. The 1,144 new homes listed on the market was a 5.3 percent decrease from 2009 levels. Inventory increases seem to be tapering off, a seasonal expectation for this time of year. There are 24,849 homes for buyers to choose from, up 10.4 percent from year-ago levels. That’s the smallest inventory gain in seven weeks. If this trend continues, it will serve to help rebalance the Twin Cities housing market.

November 15, 2010
The Skinny
For the week ending November 6, the pending snow outlook worsened as the Pending Sales outlook improved. The 619 signed purchase agreements in the Twin Cities metropolitan area marked a 16.0 percent drop from the same week last year. That's the smallest decline since the week ending May 8.

We do need to add some context to that piece of good news. We are not seeing an increase in sales activity this year so much as sales began to decline at this time last year. The post tax-credit demand vacuum will lose suction during the winter months but will likely reappear this spring.

Potential sellers had a relatively busy week, listing 1,399 new properties on the market for a 10.6 percent increase over last year. That's the first significant increase in New Listings since the week ending April 24.

Although inventory levels were 11.3 percent higher than last year at 25,257 active listings, the rate of increase appears to be slowing. The Supply Demand Ratio has reached 10.82, its highest level since December 2008. This means there are currently about 11 homes available per buyer.

November 9, 2010
The Skinny
For the week ending October 30, New Listings in the 13-county Twin Cities metropolitan area were up 0.4 percent over last year to punch in at 1,266 new units. That’s the first time seller activity has outpaced last year’s levels since the last full week of April.

Buyer activity wasn’t quite so fortunate as Pending Sales were down 29.9 percent over the same week last year. But that’s a major win in its own right. The 579 signed purchase agreements mark the smallest year-over-year decrease in housing demand since the first week of May.

Inventory continued its ascent. As of November 8, the 25,629 Active Listings weighed in 12.0 percent heavier than last year. This metric has been steadily climbing since early June and should continue to be monitored closely. It means increased competition among sellers and more options and leverage for buyers.

November 2, 2010
Pending Sales in the 13-county Twin Cities metro experienced its smallest decrease since the end of May. The 611 purchase agreements signed for the week ending October 23 were 34.0 percent fewer than the same week in 2009. While still in the red, it’s not to the extent we’ve seen the past few months.

Seller activity held fairly stable at 1,303 New Listings for the week. This made for an 8.9 percent dip from last year’s levels and was roughly on par with the 7.8 percent average decline over the past three months.

Inventory is still high. As of November 1, it stands at 25,706 Active Listings, an 11.5 percent jump since last year at this time. The pace of inventory activity should continue to decline as we step toward winter.

October 12, 2010
The Skinny....
We're used to seeing housing activity slow down at this time of year. Trouble is, this seasonal slowdown is amplified when compared to a front-loaded 2010 selling season and a comparably strong tax-credit-driven 4th quarter 2009 selling season. The net effect is that year-over-year changes are comparing an incentive period to a non-incentive period. Keep that in mind in the coming weeks when looking over the latest housing market figures.

For the week ending October 2, sellers placed 5.3 percent fewer homes on the market. In sum, 1,541 new properties came online during the week. By comparison, over the past three months, the average decline between this and last year's activity is 9.1 percent.

The 630 pending sales during the week were 39.6 percent fewer than the same week last year. Since the second week of June, the percentage decline in buyer activity from the same week last year has ranged between 48 and 34 percent. That's not a pretty picture for the most recent four-month period.

Inventory continued along its growth path, checking in at 27,033 as of October 12. This was an 11.0 percent increase over last year at this time, which is the largest increase since the final week of January 2008. Market times and negotiations are starting to reflect this trend.